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Professor Ferguson Is Overconfident In His Covid Projections According To Top American Forecaster Nate Silver

‘Professor Lockdown’ Neil Ferguson’s estimate that Covid cases will climb to 100,000 per day in the UK has been ridiculed by renowned American forecaster Nate Silver.
Silver, who uses models to forecast the outcome of presidential elections in the United States, said the epidemic had too many unknowns for anyone to securely assert anything.
Professor Ferguson of Imperial College anticipated that the third wave would result in a massive increase in infections, with up to 100,000 new cases per day by the end of the month.
Professor Lockdown’s prognosis that Covid cases would climb to 100,000 per day in the UK was ridiculed by renowned American forecaster Nate Silver (pictured). Professor Ferguson, from Imperial College, had projected that the third wave may lead to a major jump in infections. But, considering the recent decrease in cases, Ferguson has changed his estimate and now believes Covid could be over by October.
‘Covid instances have plummeted to 33,000 per day (7-day average) since Neil Ferguson, maybe the UK’s most distinguished epidemiologist, stated it was “very likely” that cases would reach 100,000 per day,’ Silver wrote on Twitter.
‘It doesn’t matter if the prediction is incorrect; I’m confident this stuff is difficult to predict.’
‘It’s because he’s always so overconfident.’
He now claims to be “certain” that the pandemic will be over by October.
‘Oh, most likely.’
However, there are downside risks: new varieties, waning immunity, and so on.’ Silver, who uses models to predict the outcome of US presidential elections, agreed that there were too many unknowns. Political scientist Philip Tetlock agreed, saying, ‘Expect even the best forecasters to make a lot of mistakes.’
Start assuming skilled forecasters aren’t playing a pure-accuracy game (e.g., when they’re frequently overconfident).
Prof Ferguson had claimed that the decline in infections appears to be’real,’ and that the R number could be slightly below one – though he cautioned that the situation is still highly unknown and that there could be future spikes.
He attributed the drop to the end of the Euros football competition and nicer weather, which caused people to congregate indoors less.
While he acknowledged that there could be ‘uncertainty’ until the autumn, he also stated that vaccines have ‘fundamentally’ changed the estimates.
‘I’m confident that by late September or early October, we’ll have covered the most of the pandemic,’ he said.
‘We’ll still have Covid, and people will still die from Covid, but we’ll have put the bulk of the pandemic behind us,’ he said. It comes as Department of Health data indicated that infection rates in England are now trending downwards in every age group, with twenty-somethings leading the way.
On Wednesday, the United Kingdom registered another 27,734 Covid cases, down 37% in a week for the seventh day in a row.
Yet, hospitalizations and deaths both jumped by a quarter week on week.
Due to the infectious delta variation, scientists at University College London estimate that the whole population’s immunity is at 87 percent, with the current threshold for herd immunity at 93 percent.
Being so close to the limit should make it more difficult for the virus to spread.
‘In terms of herd immunity – by which we mean the virus has managed to reach everyone and so most people will have a level of immunological memory – I guess we’re very near to that,’ Dr David Matthews, a virologist and coronaviruses expert from the University of Bristol, told The Telegraph.
‘Assuming nothing absolutely dramatically out of the ordinary happens, the pandemic in the UK is probably much over.’
I don’t think we’ll see a large spike this winter, or any significant increases in mortality.
‘The closer we go to closing the gap on the last 10% of people who haven’t had the vaccine, the better.’
Everyone will come into contact with the virus at some point, and it is far better to do so vaccinated.’

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